Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f39f0e40b76c71350f80092d7033734090a1092ee2d4e5407f254e3cd8028c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8afc…0515backed Yes | 17c | 805.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 296.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 27c | 255.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 218.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 210.92$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 207.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 207.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 7c | 201.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 165.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 163.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 139.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 136.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 74c | 126.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 17c | 124.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 124.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 118.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 17c | 116.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 41c | 111.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 111.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 42c | 102.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 39c | 92.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 86.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…c912backed Yes | 32c | 84.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 83.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 81.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 74c | 81.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 80.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 77.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 74.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 40c | 74.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 36c | 70.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 64.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 59.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 43c | 56.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 54.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 52.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…abdabacked Yes | 41c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 47.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 40c | 47.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 56c | 44.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 44.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 40.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 35.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 34.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 39c | 34.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 32.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 58c | 27.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…8199backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 24.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 21.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 62c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 55c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 60c | 16.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.