Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dbec8d0c6bd7deabf280d4db89056f4c25333c6e82f0be1df6de1826006d118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 579.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 543.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 65c | 305.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 284.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 281.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 274.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 8c | 251.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 218.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 10c | 217.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.45 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 208.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 173.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 163.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 159.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 57c | 158.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 137.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 131.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 20c | 131.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 110.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 12c | 105.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 99.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 14c | 95.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 45c | 89.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 19c | 77.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 65c | 76.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 20c | 71.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 70.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 18c | 68.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 45c | 61.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 60.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 52.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 38c | 52.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 51.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed Yes | 39c | 51.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 42c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 43.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 38c | 39.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…aa30backed Yes | 29c | 35.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 48c | 35.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 33.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 77c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…9dc9backed Yes | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 25.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 24.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 19.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.