MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f57075105ede516b10723a46dfe7627d6ae321723e976e6fd8a2643453062a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 4,226$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 45c | 2,620$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 55c | 2,620$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 1,918$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 55c | 696.22$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 571.74$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 492.21$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 56c | 302.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 259.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 155.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 60c | 155.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 119.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 118.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 56c | 53.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 45c | 47.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 80c | 43.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Over | 55c | 42.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 391 | 51.9%203 W · 188 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 24.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 58c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.