MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3759eada8b76d537106275ca0fd405b2ccaf01e03cc45fda65dde6ff6dedf6b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 51c | 13,000$6,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,370 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 7,777$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.73 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 5,406$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,591$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,547$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 49c | 1,351$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.93 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,116$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.59 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 831.46$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 749.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 565.71$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 471.51$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 459.84$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 371.12$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.85 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 45c | 370.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 331.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 50c | 300.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 298.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 50c | 297$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 295.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 273.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 238.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 45c | 217.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 174.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 163.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 108.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…daecbacked Over | 48c | 104.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 101.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 52c | 99.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 52c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 72.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 48c | 66.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 54.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 45c | 43.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 79c | 40.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 49c | 27.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.