MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e59d511cfbef45214d82b22ee12f1997d0e81350ac5ff09b9cbd3ea6d510ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 51c | 7,752$3,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,962.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 5,824$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 500.58$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.28 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 382.82$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 380$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 229.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 160.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Mets | 47c | 109.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 58c | 87.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 78.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 74.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 35c | 58.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 55.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 63c | 46.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked New York Mets | 31c | 40.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 40.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 26.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Mets | 63c | 25.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed New York Mets | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 64c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.