MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738770885dc675977a32ec882944eb0f31bf0c3c91ec026dd3f62eea27005fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 36c | 2,593$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 885.21$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 760.58$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.94 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…54adbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 35c | 517.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.1 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Mets | 57c | 503.51$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.51 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 52c | 484.69$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 463$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 293.26$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 248$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 200.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 31c | 189.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 189.38$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 151.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 149$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 28c | 139$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed New York Mets | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked New York Mets | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 114.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 89.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 88.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 84.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 41c | 82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 29c | 67.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 62.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 33c | 55.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked New York Mets | 35c | 41.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 40.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 72c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Mets | 69c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 21.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 20.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.