Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156902abbdba51d36ffcf5348dd72e06f6ef8c78fad0df8f4b055e8a2b415dd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 693.04$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 574.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 16c | 430.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 407.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 28c | 402.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 385.65$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 312$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 71c | 306.63$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 303.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 43c | 254.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 237.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 234.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 75c | 225.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.11 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 209.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 179.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 27c | 178$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 33c | 174.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 69c | 157$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 154.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 33c | 149.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 146.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 137.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 69c | 135.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 130.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 119.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 119.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 33c | 98.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 90.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 88.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 57c | 87.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 27c | 81.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 81.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 69c | 80.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 65c | 79.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 77.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 73c | 75.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 69c | 71.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 43c | 66.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 31c | 64.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 32c | 64.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 63.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 62.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 63c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…b17abacked Yes | 26c | 60.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 43c | 58.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 55.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 55.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 55.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 62c | 51.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 51.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 71c | 50.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 50.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 48.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 36c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 64c | 42.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 34c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 34.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 34.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…5ff2backed Yes | 37c | 34.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 64c | 33.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 31.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 70c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 30.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 57c | 28.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.