TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes31c693.04$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes39c574.25$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8443932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No16c430.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.2296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c407.5$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.74,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes28c402.68$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5810030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No64c385.65$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.341,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No64c312$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.561,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No71c306.63$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.633560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c303.24$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes43c254.82$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c237.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c234.11$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes75c225.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No34c209.58$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No67c179.84$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9759923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes27c178$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.065024%12 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes33c174.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3711947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fad…242fbacked No69c157$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c154.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.184,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.56750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes33c149.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.799146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c146.86$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.942,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No72c137.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed Yes69c135.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.382157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c130.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c119.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.531,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No64c119.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9525784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2834831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa282…8700backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0357545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes33c98.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.168655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c90.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c88.22$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.424,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29cd…f4c7backed No57c87.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.611485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes36c86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.969346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes28c82.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf23…3f54backed Yes27c81.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.022623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c81.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.732,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47e…517ebacked Yes69c80.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No65c79.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7518240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c77.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No73c75.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2415669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No69c71.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0915666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed No43c66.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.145937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7580735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes31c64.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9217524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes32c64.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.253740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No39c63.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.232,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3df…463dbacked Yes26c62.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59456.4%53 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c62.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.172,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No63c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.844235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce7…b17abacked Yes26c60.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes43c58.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3442061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No45c55.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No36c55.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.162,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No49c55.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2671057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes25c53.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3730834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed No62c51.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.724134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c51.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.712,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…6483backed No71c50.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.513669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No54c50.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.516220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes30c48.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No57c47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.335232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c44.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c42.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes36c42.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No64c42.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0626442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c3…2a14backed Yes34c38.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.092657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No47c34.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.432,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No66c34.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.735,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…5ff2backed Yes37c34.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No74c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.754564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes64c33.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1819039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No74c32.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No57c31.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3649359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed No70c31.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No38c30.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes35c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.792,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No71c29.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6921448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No65c29.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5920056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No57c28.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3221272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No70c28.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3911770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No71c28.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.323871.1%27 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes44c27.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2463538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No59c25.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2789951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.