Fifa International · resolved market
South Africa leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15784bc2a4f107e5a0347ef20f8b096e1e5fa90c07746a282635a432a7ff3701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 3c | 10,317$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.43 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,601$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 2,663$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.19 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 11c | 2,418$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…34cebacked Yes | 12c | 1,443$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…577bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,153$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…f00ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8de…3111backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 3c | 890.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…9d42backed Yes | 12c | 863.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 11c | 832.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 5c | 580.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 165 | 9.7%16 W · 149 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb2…30d7backed Yes | 2c | 573.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4453backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e86backed Yes | 11c | 320.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 10c | 303.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…a61cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 30.6%44 W · 100 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…cca2backed Yes | 11c | 137.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…8377backed Yes | 11c | 126.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…db83backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…0520backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…7f73backed Yes | 12c | 107.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…6f32backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Africa leading at halftime?this page
- Mexico leading at halftime?Yes won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.