Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba5ba4a850edb5e6d422426930870e7e18ab2a9cdfc1949b47925e7f44e90238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 17,328$12,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,344.53 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…abe5backed Yes | 36c | 10,532$3,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,805.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 7,817$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.14 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 6,553$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.2 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 11c | 6,352$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.6 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 4,001$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.58 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 43c | 2,792$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.96 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,631$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.83 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 12c | 1,594$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 63c | 1,535$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.15 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 56c | 1,386$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 77c | 1,207$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.01 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 42c | 939.16$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…5dcebacked No | 58c | 921.43$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…a5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 909$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed No | 56c | 805.49$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.42 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…43e2backed Yes | 44c | 680.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Yes | 42c | 648.94$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.8 | 560 | 22.7%127 W · 433 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…b084backed Yes | 44c | 390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 43c | 308.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 57c | 291$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…f7d7backed Yes | 8c | 288.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…3a98backed Yes | 43c | 284.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 164 | 25.6%42 W · 122 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 13c | 256.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…b8acbacked Yes | 44c | 231.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…cad0backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…974dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…de98backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Yes | 12c | 185.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 234 | 43.6%102 W · 132 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked Yes | 43c | 184$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 250 | 31.6%79 W · 171 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 9.7%16 W · 149 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed No | 56c | 138.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e13…c506backed Yes | 44c | 133.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…b9febacked Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 242 | 33.5%81 W · 161 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 132.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d8…c245backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…6e1fbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…5ab3backed Yes | 44c | 113.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…345cbacked Yes | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…0bbdbacked No | 58c | 101.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…130fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 311 | 29.6%92 W · 219 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed Yes | 44c | 93.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…f29dbacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 56c | 82.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 79c | 80.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,459 | 53.9%787 W · 672 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…6f32backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 57c | 69.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 24.7%57 W · 174 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…f520backed Yes | 42c | 46.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…cde6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca42…1f4dbacked No | 59c | 45.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…eed0backed Yes | 44c | 37.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed No | 67c | 37.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 475 | 46.1%219 W · 256 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked No | 58c | 36.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 43c | 36.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 42c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…cbe8backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…a809backed Yes | 44c | 33.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e5…f52cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked No | 63c | 33.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 56c | 29.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 57c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed No | 64c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked No | 59c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 190 | 38.9%74 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?this page
- Mexico leading at halftime?Yes won
- South Africa leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.