Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Merrimack College Warriors vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: O/U 132.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158a8505fffbf4313b06709448d9378f46d55d0824fb90fa517349bd39e69cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 51c | 48,074$24,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,399.22 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 49c | 13,500$6,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,615 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Under | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 49c | 9,985$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.6 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 9,771$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,409.4 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 58c | 4,828$2,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.84 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 55c | 4,001$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.5 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 2,528$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.12 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 1,429$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.76 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,386$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.92 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 48c | 666$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.9 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 52c | 464.91$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.19 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 45c | 360.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.36 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 202.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 194$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 46c | 189.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 48c | 189$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 185$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 53c | 141.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 44c | 136.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 49c | 94.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 49c | 91.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…22c3backed Under | 47c | 55.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Under | 49c | 37.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Under | 49c | 37.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 53c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Merrimack College Warriors vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: O/U 132.5this page
- Merrimack College Warriors vs. Mount St. Mary's MountaineersMerrimack College Warriors won
- Spread: Merrimack College Warriors (-3.5)Merrimack College Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.