Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Total Open: Laura Siegemund vs Varvara Gracheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e59cb5fcc96ebaf4d68bf68c09a7cdb4ef023ee570960459983372c105752b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grachevaof Siegemund, Gracheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Siegemund | 0c | 3,836$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Siegemund | 32c | 3,364$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.89 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Gracheva | 73c | 1,791$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.41 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Gracheva | 67c | 1,555$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.93 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Siegemund | 34c | 999.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…3c12backed Siegemund | 13c | 900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Siegemund | 31c | 763.89$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Gracheva | 68c | 690.23$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.45 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Siegemund | 35c | 508.57$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Siegemund | 3c | 452.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Gracheva | 67c | 446.78$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Gracheva | 55c | 428.11$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Siegemund | 32c | 377.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Siegemund | 41c | 270$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…c11abacked Siegemund | 28c | 246.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Siegemund | 20c | 242.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…3878backed Siegemund | 29c | 220.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Siegemund | 32c | 205.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Gracheva | 73c | 203.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Siegemund | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Siegemund | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Gracheva | 67c | 189.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Siegemund | 28c | 173.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Gracheva | 68c | 171.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Siegemund | 35c | 154.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Siegemund | 22c | 152.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…2030backed Siegemund | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Siegemund | 35c | 138.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Siegemund | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Gracheva | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Siegemund | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Siegemund | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5b79backed Siegemund | 19c | 78.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 205 | 15.6%32 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Gracheva | 58c | 75.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Gracheva | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…c5b3backed Siegemund | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…2149backed Siegemund | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 185 | 40%74 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked Siegemund | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Siegemund | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Siegemund | 34c | 59.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Siegemund | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Gracheva | 74c | 50.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Gracheva | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeba…7a91backed Siegemund | 21c | 49.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Gracheva | 52c | 43.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Gracheva | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Siegemund | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Gracheva | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Gracheva | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Gracheva | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…09d6backed Gracheva | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Gracheva | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Gracheva | 71c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…9706backed Gracheva | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Gracheva | 66c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Gracheva | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Gracheva | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Gracheva | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Total Open: Laura Siegemund vs Varvara Grachevathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Siegemund vs GrachevaGracheva won
- Siegemund vs. Gracheva: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.