TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Marlins, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$525,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 504 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals42c258,766$108,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,084.3538043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Marlins58c137,103$79,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,337.7263152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Marlins58c75,000$43,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,50060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Marlins58c48,000$27,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,84055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Marlins40c25,157$10,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,151.061,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Marlins56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.982339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Marlins58c17,387$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00028646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Nationals43c15,095$6,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,56326949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals70c14,408$10,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,363.8433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Nationals43c13,398$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,636.6719649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marlins12c9,631$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals44c8,337$3,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,668.891,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Nationals43c8,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.947659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Marlins56c7,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.999255.4%51 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Nationals73c6,664$4,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals43c5,620$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,222.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals44c5,555$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.81,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals44c5,280$2,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,956.838949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins57c5,203$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.972,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins23c4,165$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.372,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Marlins27c3,880$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.689560%57 W · 38 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals44c2,840$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.691,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Marlins58c2,313$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.5435952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Marlins58c2,079$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.8226355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Marlins57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14038751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals42c1,850$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07350843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Marlins58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.81,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Nationals44c1,638$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.269842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nationals43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.9916349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins12c1,317$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.94,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Marlins56c1,244$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.8411449.1%56 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Nationals43c1,192$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.657651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc9…56d0backed Nationals43c1,111$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.272050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Marlins58c1,109$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.231,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Marlins8c1,022$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.110548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals42c1,019$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.0224547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Marlins57c964.91$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-55.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b63…d2cfbacked Marlins23c878.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Nationals44c853.79$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.1215644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45683248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Marlins2c781.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.945852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e5…a94fbacked Nationals44c745$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nationals43c708.54$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.6173149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…410cbacked Nationals45c707.18$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.951533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41f…e827backed Marlins57c705.46$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40644443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals44c681$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.361,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Marlins56c608.33$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6624253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Nationals51c599.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29442452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals42c574.29$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0951347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Marlins12c533.19$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.986,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Marlins8c501.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Marlins55c499.98$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9951151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals44c499.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals49c430.9$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.941,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22495850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Marlins3c387.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.485053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Nationals66c380.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2221246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Marlins55c364.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.34436.4%16 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Marlins56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Marlins56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0070…afd5backed Marlins57c350$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals44c349.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Marlins8c348.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.942242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Marlins27c326$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Marlins58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1746653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals43c300$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17033852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Marlins22c272.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608940.4%36 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516a…84f6backed Marlins56c257.13$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.996435.9%23 W · 41 L-11.6wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x409b…d3dabacked Nationals45c251.11$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.112343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Nationals42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc7…f8f2backed Marlins57c250$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Marlins45c238.7$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9517243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals43c232$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2431347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x870b…2181backed Marlins57c227.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.591338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd64b…483cbacked Nationals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Marlins56c215.3$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5721146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1888…e1cbbacked Marlins49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins10c200.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Marlins56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Marlins56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Marlins56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Marlins56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247e…3a07backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e2…5daebacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a5b…02fabacked Marlins56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d07…3068backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8f…963ebacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x093b…e84cbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cca…6c96backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed1…d738backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a6…835abacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.