Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15f403035c58b27a0bb8d94e68b2a3a53482916afd020dbbc96a2609b2eaf2c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,006$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 743.79$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 525.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 52c | 433.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.77 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 373.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 48c | 312.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 57c | 254.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 227.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 208.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 185.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 177$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 176.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 173.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 166.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 152.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 148.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 59c | 146.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 44c | 135.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 135.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 129.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 118.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 58c | 105.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 102.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 101.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 96.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 60c | 94.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 71.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 41c | 69.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 39c | 50.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 39c | 50.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 48.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed No | 62c | 45.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 43.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 60c | 40.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 39.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 48c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 29.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 49c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 25.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 58c | 21.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.