Fifa International · resolved market
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fb60bd23f4c1d5f65ad3f016fb0949853ebb7505218fcac0546638d53e89e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 8c | 1,428$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 1,306$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 23c | 1,039$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 16c | 950$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 16c | 674.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 7c | 668.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…8887backed Under | 80c | 626.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 6c | 521.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 486.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Under | 71c | 429$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 31c | 253.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Over | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 34c | 164.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 234 | 40.2%94 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…c816backed Over | 45c | 97.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 97.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 16c | 78.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Over | 49c | 75.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 75c | 74.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 19c | 60.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Under | 69c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 56c | 24.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 79c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…9f90backed Under | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)Venezuela won
- Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)Venezuela won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5Over won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5Over won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5Over won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5Under won
- Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.