MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16045242709f79c41c078372c2070e9c24cace542d8c744330ea1443bb0f04f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 60c | 11,000$6,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,574.74 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 40c | 8,700$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,219.72 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 40c | 931.93$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 525$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 57c | 209.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 79c | 176.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 21c | 176.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 43c | 122.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 57.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…8634backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 42c | 26.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…b38ebacked No | 58c | 24.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 77c | 19.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.