MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03664bbe35480892f0ea2c1b8f0ea1186d34394128e929fcc2dc52a0bce27e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 12,054$7,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,731.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 6,168$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 2,477$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.99 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 1,719$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.31 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 1,083$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.73 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 686.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.29 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 651.4$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 623.91$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.07 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 506$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 28c | 269$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 262$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 257.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 242$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 242$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.86 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 223$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 186$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 123.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 108.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 103$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 98.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 74.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 58.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 57.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 54.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 49.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 43.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 36.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 31.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 28.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.