Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1618a0f02f4962667ccf7181c4bf0d631ae5687cf8415576d438ebf691df3a74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked GamerLegion | 33c | 7,906$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.95 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed MOUZ | 73c | 6,847$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.5 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 64c | 4,570$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.1 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed GamerLegion | 46c | 4,297$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.3 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed MOUZ | 75c | 4,002$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.35 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed GamerLegion | 43c | 3,629$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.63 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked GamerLegion | 30c | 2,600$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.46 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GamerLegion | 28c | 1,307$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.3 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed MOUZ | 66c | 715.32$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed GamerLegion | 27c | 587.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.67 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed MOUZ | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 59c | 509.07$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…fae8backed GamerLegion | 23c | 447.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed GamerLegion | 60c | 431.7$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.9 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked GamerLegion | 36c | 413.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ | 74c | 406.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 61c | 363.68$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked GamerLegion | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed GamerLegion | 42c | 268$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ | 49c | 265.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked GamerLegion | 52c | 221.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed GamerLegion | 40c | 196.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed GamerLegion | 57c | 176.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed MOUZ | 40c | 170$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…a4a0backed GamerLegion | 30c | 166.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed MOUZ | 61c | 160.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed GamerLegion | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked MOUZ | 67c | 149.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed GamerLegion | 35c | 144.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed GamerLegion | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed GamerLegion | 31c | 108.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked MOUZ | 76c | 102.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed GamerLegion | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed GamerLegion | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…37e7backed MOUZ | 68c | 97.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed GamerLegion | 41c | 95.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed MOUZ | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…e9d9backed MOUZ | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked GamerLegion | 28c | 71.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed GamerLegion | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…e3c8backed GamerLegion | 35c | 54.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed GamerLegion | 41c | 51.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked MOUZ | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed MOUZ | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed GamerLegion | 22c | 46.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed MOUZ | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked MOUZ | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GamerLegion | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…e997backed MOUZ | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…f735backed GamerLegion | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed GamerLegion | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed MOUZ | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed MOUZ | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 79c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…8a4bbacked GamerLegion | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked MOUZ | 57c | 24.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked MOUZ | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed MOUZ | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed MOUZ | 70c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked MOUZ | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.