MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162b060f2f39e805083d4a7504a20169e683b597708f07731b8c2fa0aee5489c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Over | 0c | 60,530$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 60,000$31,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,800 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 57,008$26,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,213.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 0c | 38,417$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 0c | 22,120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,263$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…ed60backed Over | 54c | 2,152$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 1,359$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.01 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 1,018$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 724.2$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 586.12$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 485.12$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.04 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 52c | 393.74$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 213.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 52c | 160.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 52c | 144.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 50c | 143.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Over | 50c | 127.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 99.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…0845backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcef…16b9backed Under | 48c | 69.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Under | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 33c | 67.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 62.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 62.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 44.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 38c | 27.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 39c | 26.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 41c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…1cb7backed Under | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.