TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #20 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RUSTECof Oxuji Esports, RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,265 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f24…68c2backed Oxuji Esports51c5,625$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbaa…9bcbbacked Oxuji Esports48c5,606$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4772…0a60backed RUSTEC52c5,114$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed RUSTEC50c5,095$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.2912752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47c…0bd0backed RUSTEC52c5,052$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Oxuji Esports50c3,458$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.1832536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked RUSTEC49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9775356.8%428 W · 325 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8364…9684backed Oxuji Esports1c2,625$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RUSTEC51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oxuji Esports48c1,784$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.052,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ed…6374backed RUSTEC52c1,708$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Oxuji Esports49c1,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80041847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Oxuji Esports50c1,598$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked RUSTEC50c1,474$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.461,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5e…58efbacked Oxuji Esports51c1,203$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.63534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Oxuji Esports51c1,203$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.1539245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Oxuji Esports50c1,106$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.4910945%49 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…6d93backed Oxuji Esports50c1,032$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5161850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d87…a82bbacked RUSTEC50c950$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4755244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked RUSTEC51c911.36$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5836253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed RUSTEC66c855.08$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.854259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…e12dbacked Oxuji Esports50c678.77$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3404042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2e…b5a5backed RUSTEC31c640$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.813847.1%65 W · 73 L+18.3wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+65.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Oxuji Esports48c639.05$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0833237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed Oxuji Esports50c544.52$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.173748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed RUSTEC25c542.67$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40735033.4%117 W · 233 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Oxuji Esports31c499.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557255.6%40 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Oxuji Esports43c469.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb096…fd64backed Oxuji Esports50c420$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Oxuji Esports50c403.9$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.751,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed RUSTEC67c371.93$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9180744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed RUSTEC50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1755,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed RUSTEC52c341.7$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.364,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Oxuji Esports33c333.37$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.146,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked RUSTEC50c331.15$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5816235.8%58 W · 104 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d68…21c2backed Oxuji Esports51c314.08$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed RUSTEC52c305.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7365254.3%354 W · 298 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9657…d3d8backed RUSTEC74c273.3$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked RUSTEC49c250$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.595642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed Oxuji Esports48c248.2$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2324940.6%101 W · 148 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Oxuji Esports34c225$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.577346.1%356 W · 417 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked RUSTEC51c218$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.829538.9%37 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1405…d36fbacked RUSTEC66c207.07$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.561353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked RUSTEC49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10270038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed RUSTEC49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9910442.3%44 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked Oxuji Esports51c198.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0413258.3%77 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed RUSTEC50c194.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.545639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0004…a4d7backed RUSTEC53c187.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.871485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked RUSTEC41c187.87$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Oxuji Esports49c181.05$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7131735.6%113 W · 204 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2454…89cbbacked Oxuji Esports32c171.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked RUSTEC53c163.26$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8718751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed Oxuji Esports49c154.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.57041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Oxuji Esports48c150.06$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.038855.7%49 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed RUSTEC50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7554032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Oxuji Esports45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.515544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Oxuji Esports50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7516846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked RUSTEC71c135$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.034628.3%13 W · 33 L-10.4wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-46.7%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Oxuji Esports47c132.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8265946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc38…c3b4backed Oxuji Esports51c132.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5333950.7%172 W · 167 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed Oxuji Esports38c131.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015259.9%91 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7307…7d23backed RUSTEC52c126.85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.355750.9%29 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Oxuji Esports49c123.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6928052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked RUSTEC48c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.154748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e7…174fbacked Oxuji Esports49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504040%16 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed RUSTEC50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5040247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Oxuji Esports38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7691648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0a0…d84fbacked RUSTEC52c93.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.554940.8%20 W · 29 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Oxuji Esports48c91.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.961,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked RUSTEC64c90.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.911,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x171f…d613backed RUSTEC51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.26251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e7…fef1backed RUSTEC52c77.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.736046.7%28 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc7f…f922backed Oxuji Esports33c75.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259946.5%46 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked RUSTEC58c73.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1126257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Oxuji Esports45c68.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.522,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x738a…1a9ebacked RUSTEC67c61.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.352334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed RUSTEC51c58.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.442,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked RUSTEC52c56.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5415160.9%92 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Oxuji Esports39c56.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1323858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8670…b34bbacked Oxuji Esports49c54.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.643148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e2b…7fc1backed RUSTEC74c52.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.74463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fc…76d7backed Oxuji Esports50c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.336854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b08…750cbacked RUSTEC79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.633100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccfa…6be3backed Oxuji Esports49c50.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked Oxuji Esports48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2419055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedaa…89b4backed RUSTEC50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2524535.9%88 W · 157 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked RUSTEC79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451,27871.5%914 W · 364 L+3.6wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked Oxuji Esports48c44.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed RUSTEC54c40.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7410651.9%55 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed RUSTEC59c40.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8752755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed RUSTEC56c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.48166.7%54 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf829…5ee1backed RUSTEC68c37.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Oxuji Esports46c35.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.532,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f3…9afbbacked Oxuji Esports51c35.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee6…0668backed RUSTEC75c31.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.91464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9810…b0debacked Oxuji Esports50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.098247.6%39 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Oxuji Esports51c29.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511942%50 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed RUSTEC57c28.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0528660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed RUSTEC51c28.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.873256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8821…32c6backed Oxuji Esports40c25.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.