Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16400855a94be3a0f90f273fe750d7e8ffca7c8385b3220d4b678a2217222a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 2,296$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 496.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 350$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 320$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 61c | 290$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 255.63$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 228$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 197$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 195.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 189.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 182$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 180.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 161.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 151$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 138.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 61c | 126.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 124.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 112.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 105.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 89.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 62c | 85.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 23c | 83.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 82.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 61c | 73.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 68.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 67.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 66.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 61c | 64.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 54c | 64.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 59.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 57.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 40c | 57.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 46c | 52.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 51.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 38c | 49.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 48.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 52c | 45.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 45.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…4056backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 48c | 39.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 36.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 40c | 34.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 34c | 31.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 54c | 30.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed No | 56c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 18.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 60c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.