World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164c423f85483430ffc48710b89a9664881d8cd1b60ded25c5cef09b2cfffa92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 263.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 225.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 219.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 218.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 183$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 36c | 173.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 159.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 132.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 64c | 115.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 17c | 93.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 84.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 84.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 81.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 69c | 59.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 55.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 48.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 46.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 45.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 42.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…bcbabacked No | 64c | 41.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 40.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 38.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 33c | 38.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…451abacked Yes | 33c | 38.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 36.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 32.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked Yes | 37c | 32.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 30.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 64c | 17.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.