World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e1995325987ee0e9de3445e4f9f485a75cb297598791c4ea47af28f79cecab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 24c | 1,444$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 28c | 1,344$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,337$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.03 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 1,197$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.79 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 30c | 694.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.28 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 497$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.36 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 495$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 344.12$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 296.35$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 283.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 210.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 194.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 189$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 185.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 165.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 157.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 78c | 127.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 116$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 67c | 111.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 25c | 108.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 92.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 61.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 57.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 56.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 52.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 39.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 31.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 27.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed No | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 21.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 19.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…f156backed No | 75c | 14.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.