MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16684a320a301183ec9ce52301258517843c84e573a98da00ad659763b9f5fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,763 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 8,520$6,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.24 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 4,442$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.89 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 2,259$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.36 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 1,788$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.44 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 1,619$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.43 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 748.59$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.35 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 580.77$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 451.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.1 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 436.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Texas Rangers | 29c | 342.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 258$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 152.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 122.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 105.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 89.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 69.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 60.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 56.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 31.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…073ebacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 21.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.