Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166f466905cfeccc97a9f0734630ca7b3540c09740315f53aaa99e888fd9fa79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,653 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes | 25c | 10,500$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked No | 75c | 10,489$7,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 1c | 2,669$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 3c | 625.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 519.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 448.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 446.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 443.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 379$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 26c | 364.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 10c | 332.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 4c | 327.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 16c | 293.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 274.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 19c | 257.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 244.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 233.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 222.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 11c | 208.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 13c | 206.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 199.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 7c | 196.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 196.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 18c | 170.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 165.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 157.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 18c | 152.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 31c | 136.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 134.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5755…7e89backed Yes | 23c | 121$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 24c | 118.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 115.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 77c | 112.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…8f57backed Yes | 23c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 13c | 103.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…b517backed Yes | 23c | 103$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…9319backed Yes | 23c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835e…126cbacked Yes | 23c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…1331backed Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 89.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 74c | 84.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 69.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 68.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 71c | 61.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 58.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…18a4backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 54.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…d647backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…c6d4backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…1be4backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…a721backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…14bebacked No | 77c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…cc8fbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 74c | 35.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…b135backed No | 77c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 32.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…1321backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 61c | 31.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…6e54backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…e01abacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…40efbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…9d4cbacked No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…8a46backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…9baabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 80c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…d4e6backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…a09abacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…7b39backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…8da6backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313a…01b0backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 74c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…5dc7backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…8caabacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.