TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,653 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes25c10,500$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.491520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f3…94cbbacked No75c10,489$7,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.591650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98f7…a036backed Yes1c2,669$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.223630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes3c625.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2159818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c519.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.236819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c448.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.061,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes5c446.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6953525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes11c443.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.661,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes16c379$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.321,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes26c364.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Yes10c332.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.861020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes4c327.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0466144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42c0…b200backed Yes16c293.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.381338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes7c274.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes19c257.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c244.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c233.17$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.014,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes6c222.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yes15c210$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…6faebacked Yes11c208.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.622015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes13c206.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.67714.3%11 W · 66 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes10c199.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.922,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes7c196.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.031942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c196.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes18c170.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c165.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes27c157.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.581,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes18c152.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.936137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes31c136.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4611533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes18c134.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5755…7e89backed Yes23c121$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes24c118.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No78c115.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6727756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbe…139ebacked No77c112.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c8…8f57backed Yes23c112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked Yes13c103.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94336.1%2 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5282…b517backed Yes23c103$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…9319backed Yes23c95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835e…126cbacked Yes23c95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ef…1331backed Yes23c93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c89.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No74c84.14$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.226349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No67c78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No77c74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.091931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-49.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes23c74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.091947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes27c69.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.491,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No77c68.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1329056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f1…6aa4backed No71c61.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.583167.7%21 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c58.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65df…18a4backed No77c57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No75c54.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d70…d647backed No77c47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…c6d4backed No77c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x104f…1be4backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d07…a721backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f3…14bebacked No77c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2b…cc8fbacked No77c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…13f3backed No74c35.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.091833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe424…b135backed No77c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No74c32.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830d…1321backed No77c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94e…e6e5backed No61c31.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4896…fe47backed Yes35c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2de…ff4fbacked No73c27.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.436460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No69c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.377754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3160…6e54backed No77c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d60…e01abacked No77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f1…40efbacked No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad7…9d4cbacked No77c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c79…c259backed No77c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.583467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf388…8a46backed No77c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No77c20.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb17…9baabacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…0a2abacked No80c19.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.032166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e2…d4e6backed No77c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe0d…a09abacked No77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3af…7b39backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…8da6backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4649675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313a…01b0backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked No74c13.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.615271.2%37 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05c7…5dc7backed No77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2074…8caabacked No77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.