Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da43af226bd646a0e2f9cf1fa3a1ded995f742188835aad5a30fdff710b90d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 812.17$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 619.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 74c | 422.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 408.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 392$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 343.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 333.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 23c | 333.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 323.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 36c | 272.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 271.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 9c | 269.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 20c | 210.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 187.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 72c | 184.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…36ccbacked Yes | 20c | 177.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 170.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 169.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 167.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 161.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 160.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 152.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 18c | 139.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 16c | 136.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…b731backed Yes | 24c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 11c | 123.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 121.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 119$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 47c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 47c | 106.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 48c | 106.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 19c | 104.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 100.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 96.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 85.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 18c | 79.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 77.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 76.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 67.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 75c | 66.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 44c | 63.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 22c | 63.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bc…881fbacked Yes | 18c | 62.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 37c | 62.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 21c | 62.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 58.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…3b16backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 55.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 55.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 30c | 54.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…ee40backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked No | 56c | 49.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 72c | 48.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 40c | 40.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…1426backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeca…6c11backed Yes | 30c | 39.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 78c | 36.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked No | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 40c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…2bc7backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 70c | 27.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 44c | 27.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…0e65backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed No | 80c | 21.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…585dbacked No | 56c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…4638backed No | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 61c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 78c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.