Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x287b754d5c81c4f7fb000fecbb4776c48de1a23f85ddef93451b7f9f4c0b3d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…4d39backed Yes | 4c | 942.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 764.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 3c | 663.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…970fbacked Yes | 30c | 537.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 522.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 505.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 389.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 46c | 375.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 368.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 355$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 9c | 343.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 337.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 69c | 306.87$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…569ebacked Yes | 4c | 259.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 19c | 218.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…b1cfbacked Yes | 7c | 204.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 195.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 175.36$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 52c | 163.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 31c | 158.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 67c | 148.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 146.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d2…118bbacked Yes | 28c | 129.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 34c | 116.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 100.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 96.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 26c | 96.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 54c | 94.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked Yes | 26c | 89.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 89.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 77.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 69.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 34c | 63.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 24c | 62.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…d6aabacked No | 49c | 60.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…29d3backed Yes | 31c | 58.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 76c | 55.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 47.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 42c | 46.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 45.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 75c | 45.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 69c | 44.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 45c | 41.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 39.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 29c | 35.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 34c | 34.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 73c | 30.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 70c | 30.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 65c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…da59backed Yes | 45c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 67c | 24.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…3b8dbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed No | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked No | 71c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 76c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 74c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…9e52backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…4329backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…72b2backed No | 77c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 73c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.