Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17425a389d1a74d674c571ddc1174111dc0d6d78af6e8b12e422efc17de01326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,957 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 2c | 758.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 51c | 388.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 381$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 330.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 315.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 297.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 35c | 287.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 277.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 35c | 273.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 213.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.05 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 64c | 184.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 56c | 168.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 13c | 158.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 153.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 61c | 151.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 18c | 150.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.22 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 146.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 144.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 144.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 138.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 127.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 41c | 123.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 123.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 122.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 119.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 43c | 110.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 105.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 104.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 103$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 32c | 99.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 63c | 98.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 31c | 97.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 46c | 95.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 47c | 93.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 72c | 92.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 89.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 87.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 84.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 78.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 42c | 77.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 52c | 76.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 72.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 44c | 71.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 69.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed No | 15c | 68.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 67.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 67.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 16c | 67.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 64.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 80c | 62.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 67c | 60.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 41c | 59.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 28c | 54.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 64c | 50.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 63c | 47.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 74c | 46.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 46.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 33c | 45.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e36…342abacked Yes | 79c | 38.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 68c | 35.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 28.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…dc39backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…4638backed No | 50c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 23.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 74c | 21.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 69c | 20.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…585dbacked No | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed Yes | 76c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 70c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 71c | 15.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 14.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…fd3fbacked No | 79c | 14.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 78cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 73c | 14.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.