TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,957 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46e7…f51ebacked No2c758.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbe…139ebacked No51c388.43$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.041450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes30c381$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.891,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c330.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c315.7$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c297.28$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes35c287.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.31618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No41c277.71$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.938,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes35c273.07$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6711533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes27c213.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes64c184.92$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes56c168.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes13c158.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2966144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No76c153.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.391,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No61c151.12$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4931170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes18c150.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2246733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c146.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.574,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes35c144.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9250648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No48c144.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0213531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes18c140$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.88433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c138.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.323,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bc…617cbacked Yes75c133.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.132548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No63c127.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9832652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Yes41c123.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.251020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c123.14$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.461,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c122.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.347,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No69c119.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.233,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes43c110.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8381029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes33c105.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.861,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes43c104.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes21c103$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6259818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No10c101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c99.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9926426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1475…ed52backed No32c99.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes63c98.4$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2616634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes31c97.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.88535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes46c95.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes47c93.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.452944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No72c92.46$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9119259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c90.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.383,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No68c89.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.841,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c87.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes45c85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes29c84.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.362,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c78.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes42c77.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No52c76.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4214961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No74c74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.628076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes67c72.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No44c71.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.061,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No75c69.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5229056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d9…bad0backed No15c68.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes39c67.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.642438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes27c67.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.311,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes16c67.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Yes77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.943565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No65c64.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.281,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55c6…30f4backed Yes80c62.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed No67c60.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1110736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes41c59.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Yes28c54.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5332760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes64c50.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.091942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes30c49.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9814544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes63c47.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7611355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No74c46.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5927756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c46.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.625,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f9…a005backed Yes33c45.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.183426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes24c41.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes52c38.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.285251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e36…342abacked Yes79c38.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No68c35.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.199160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685e…983abacked Yes61c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.432445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes45c28.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6128649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes53c28.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.135736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…dc39backed No73c27.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadd6…4638backed No50c25.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No66c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No68c23.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2576371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes66c22.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.571,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No74c21.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x151b…ef82backed No69c20.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.228955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb830…2ff3backed No59c20.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8306…585dbacked No59c20.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No74c20.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa56b…06b7backed Yes76c20.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.834522.2%10 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9549675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes80c18.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.711931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No70c17.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.064751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc18…0a2abacked No71c15.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.972166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c14.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e6…fd3fbacked No79c14.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.29955.6%5 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick78cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No73c14.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.295962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf35b…8043backed No74c14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361662.5%10 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed Yes77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2924262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No80c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.