MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169debb3a75bd75920db65ac1a4736b8b0a503aefab0152171981fec622ff6ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 2,991$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.98 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked New York Mets | 66c | 2,200$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 30c | 1,668$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.13 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,303$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 1,228$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 34c | 1,175$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 65c | 1,054$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.01 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 66c | 982$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 621.47$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.14 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 53c | 564.88$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed New York Mets | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 68c | 226.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 141.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 40c | 61.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Mets | 65c | 60.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Mets | 34c | 42.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Mets | 61c | 38.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…579fbacked New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 64c | 22.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.