TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$400,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed New York Mets55c188,890$103,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,889.4646949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins45c77,777$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,777.351,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Miami Marlins45c40,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,00086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Miami Marlins45c26,002$11,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,300.881450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins52c19,455$10,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,332.682,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Miami Marlins45c15,553$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,554.331,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b20…3ab0backed Miami Marlins44c14,914$6,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,352.045851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets10c13,800$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.9182636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets47c11,034$5,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,179.64,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Miami Marlins66c7,942$5,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.1460043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Miami Marlins45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets13c4,349$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5818,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Miami Marlins45c3,356$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.820845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets24c3,329$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.048,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets18c3,322$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets20c3,302$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.578,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins66c3,110$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.044,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins44c2,485$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.863,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa90…c709backed New York Mets55c2,225$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.756256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Miami Marlins45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets46c1,989$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.861,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Mets23c1,833$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.7895045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8c…c7b5backed New York Mets56c1,781$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked New York Mets13c1,710$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets3c1,666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed New York Mets55c1,630$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.6812857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets39c1,585$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.194,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Mets56c1,577$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.140043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed New York Mets4c1,523$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.351,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets40c1,268$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.94,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed New York Mets3c1,177$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.318248.4%88 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Miami Marlins74c1,079$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Miami Marlins45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Miami Marlins45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce6…7732backed New York Mets6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked New York Mets2c993.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3717417.2%30 W · 144 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets55c979$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.456,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets21c947.53$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.162,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets50c927.8$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.35,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49e…e5e8backed New York Mets55c681.82$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3759545.3%43 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94be…e0b4backed New York Mets53c670.4$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.871225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets41c641.67$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.853,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Miami Marlins77c640.99$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.029165.9%60 W · 31 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Miami Marlins45c550$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.51,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed New York Mets48c504.77$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0425447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed Miami Marlins45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2754139%16 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Miami Marlins44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2806550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Miami Marlins45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27513848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins45c478.26$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0448147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8b…37c8backed Miami Marlins68c467.58$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.639570.5%67 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets15c447.17$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.932,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked Miami Marlins46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.788647.7%41 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Miami Marlins46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.788551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins57c432$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.84,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Miami Marlins46c423.98$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.951,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets16c394.21$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.889,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Mets55c390$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins56c381.13$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4611,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…22d2backed Miami Marlins71c373.41$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.292661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed New York Mets56c346.36$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9623140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked New York Mets50c330.9$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16410465.4%68 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Miami Marlins72c315.07$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1460348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked New York Mets56c312.5$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17521955.3%121 W · 98 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets54c299.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Miami Marlins76c257$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.171,09979.7%876 W · 223 L+33.4wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked New York Mets43c253.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed New York Mets56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,16749%572 W · 595 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Miami Marlins45c244$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.22,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed New York Mets48c243.37$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7848660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5dbe…ea98backed Miami Marlins68c238.64$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.368968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Mets56c234$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0455658.1%323 W · 233 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x721e…3439backed Miami Marlins76c233.76$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.13479.4%27 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+41.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b22…9431backed New York Mets56c230$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.87360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed New York Mets56c223.21$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Miami Marlins45c222.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2147652.9%252 W · 224 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Miami Marlins64c220$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0180159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Miami Marlins57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8631844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed New York Mets55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Miami Marlins44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11224246.7%113 W · 129 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Miami Marlins47c195.48$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.637546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201e…1a3bbacked New York Mets56c187.4$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.892744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked New York Mets55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013057.7%75 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed New York Mets55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9939846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4e…8413backed New York Mets56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins45c175.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.792,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Miami Marlins70c174.03$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0649762.2%309 W · 188 L+38.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked New York Mets14c167.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.823221.9%7 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins67c166.76$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.684,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Miami Marlins71c156.22$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.631,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed New York Mets56c151.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Miami Marlins45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.542550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed New York Mets55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Mets50c141.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5363954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed New York Mets31c141.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0810838.9%42 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Miami Marlins71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8532166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins53c129.12$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.262,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Miami Marlins75c128$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5735668.8%245 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Miami Marlins47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6621343.2%92 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…1fd0backed New York Mets56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.