MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240bf48d825fd2ddff24eaf81d2c0ee243cda80b7cb50f77c32d8b69a3857071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 9,483$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,353.48 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 67c | 4,999$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 67c | 2,185$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 747.18$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 70c | 554.77$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 52c | 305.16$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 80c | 290$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.91 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 67c | 263.88$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New York Mets | 67c | 258.23$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 240.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 193.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked New York Mets | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Mets | 38c | 87.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked New York Mets | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed New York Mets | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked New York Mets | 50c | 63.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed New York Mets | 67c | 53.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked New York Mets | 67c | 52.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Mets | 67c | 51.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed New York Mets | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked New York Mets | 67c | 44.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked New York Mets | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 53c | 36.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 58c | 30.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 26.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed New York Mets | 66c | 26.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked New York Mets | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed New York Mets | 67c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.