MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8614c03a1ecbabd33aa5bba249808a38a53e99ad7f3402af01c3716d22ea6197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 47c | 59,522$27,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,548.41 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 53c | 33,650$17,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,834.5 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 11,100$6,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,041.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 7,996$4,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,238 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 2,748$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 1,334$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,206$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 1,022$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…98f8backed Over | 50c | 1,013$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.62 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 52c | 778$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 658.82$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 649.65$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 556.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.96 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 46c | 542.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.21 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 47c | 493.77$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 369.01$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 55c | 288.6$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 206$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 191$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 46c | 171.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 165$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 150.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 40c | 140.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…4baebacked Over | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 96.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 70c | 72.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 32c | 71.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 56c | 56.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 70c | 47.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 74c | 42.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 47c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 41.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 54c | 40.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Under | 32c | 39.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 36.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 74c | 35.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 69c | 28.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 46c | 26.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 75c | 23.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 72c | 21.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 21.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 70c | 20.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 71c | 15.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.