MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x760cfaaeb606eb03d5876f0220c3c8f296048e18f18271a5a0eec1f4e2796910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 4,282$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 36c | 2,768$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.59 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 54c | 1,800$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.21 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 1,369$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 64c | 1,360$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 1,167$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 1,159$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 1,044$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Under | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 815.57$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 70c | 660.18$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 614.5$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 584.59$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 471$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 57c | 340.16$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 331.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 49c | 325.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 41c | 261.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 58c | 259.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 257$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 110.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 37c | 78.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 42c | 73.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 64c | 72.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 71.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 75c | 58.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 50c | 51.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2352backed Over | 59c | 49.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 46.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 74c | 41.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 73c | 39.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 38.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Over | 37c | 38.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 75c | 38.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 40c | 37.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 39c | 34.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 50c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…68f9backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 57c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Over | 76c | 17.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.