NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b61cf3e89972d3323fa91b9bf13f533b3a6901ab6064dcbf0d267642368c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dc5…9c12backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 4,577$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Cavaliers | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 563$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.72 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers | 8c | 523.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Trail Blazers | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Trail Blazers | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Cavaliers | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Cavaliers | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Cavaliers | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Cavaliers | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail BlazersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.