NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa18869f0d0abe1857238facd0415463e3aed7e3d608ccc58b74384da3d2f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23,885$12,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,890.73 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 21,500$9,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,890 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…9c12backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 15,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 12,360$7,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 10,924$6,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,915.86 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 8,992$5,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.73 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabb…533cbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 7,045$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Cavaliers | 57c | 4,964$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.31 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 3,667$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…b580backed Cavaliers | 56c | 2,550$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…3463backed Cavaliers | 56c | 2,450$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…2c2dbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 2,045$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 1,500$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 982$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 900$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Trail Blazers | 42c | 873.5$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.87 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 838.94$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.84 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers | 42c | 636.77$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 566.17$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 496$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.82 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Trail Blazers | 40c | 334.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 255.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Cavaliers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Cavaliers | 57c | 164.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 157.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Cavaliers | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Cavaliers | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 65.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 57.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…c6adbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 53.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Cavaliers | 59c | 42.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cavaliers | 56c | 31.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Cavaliers | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Cavaliers | 59c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Cavaliers | 58c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail BlazersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.