NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f2b4ed66bc3eeb72639d6c7a850ba5b5296eb23336a7da36ed630c9584b003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100,000$52,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,999.98 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 45,031$21,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,620.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 48c | 28,454$13,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,795.98 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 51c | 20,942$10,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,592 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 51c | 20,000$10,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 50c | 10,271$5,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,135.73 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.97 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 8,670$4,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,458.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 7,250$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 6,122$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.65 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 49c | 6,087$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.24 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 49c | 3,970$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.93 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 48c | 3,842$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.6 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 48c | 3,520$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.4 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 46c | 3,365$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.22 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 3,005$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.68 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 49c | 2,032$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.96 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,834$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.91 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 50c | 1,500$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.83 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 961$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.72 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 756.09$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.19 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 49c | 603.79$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.93 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 50c | 564$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 500.5$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 441.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Over | 50c | 413.11$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.56 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 51c | 334$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 264.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 222$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 51c | 209$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 48c | 197.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 173$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…f028backed Over | 49c | 171.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 162$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 153.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Under | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 108.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 50c | 83.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 79.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 49c | 50.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 49c | 49.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 48c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 28.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…9e5bbacked Under | 52c | 28.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 49c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 24.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 48c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 48c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 50c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…332abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail BlazersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Shaedon Sharpe: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.