Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16beea23b7b9e070fe555f54a52a1c55a8680fcecf893e1eaad4dbd0dda49c57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 2,823$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 22c | 1,250$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.66 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 22c | 1,059$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 80c | 880.08$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…aaa7backed Under | 80c | 875.13$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Over | 3c | 524.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Under | 80c | 419.84$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 79c | 294$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 19c | 269.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 23c | 260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 79c | 258$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 20c | 199.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 79c | 182$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 79c | 177$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 79c | 157$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Over | 22c | 149.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 79c | 149$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 79c | 149$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 79c | 141$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e2…b537backed Over | 22c | 75.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 80c | 60.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5689…9422backed Under | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Under | 80c | 22.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Como 1907 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.