MLB · resolved market
Spread: Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d7bc31e1f3eab1fcc2ad514d93a5d6d8af9022677e57b9e361502f00b24068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x823c…0425backed Padres | 55c | 61,140$33,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,273.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rockies | 45c | 20,927$9,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,416.28 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rockies | 45c | 15,015$6,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,684.78 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Rockies | 44c | 7,910$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,480.53 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Rockies | 45c | 5,340$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockies | 44c | 3,428$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Rockies | 44c | 2,950$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Padres | 56c | 2,356$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.81 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockies | 44c | 2,157$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.62 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Rockies | 45c | 1,459$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.55 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Rockies | 44c | 1,300$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockies | 42c | 1,195$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.59 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rockies | 44c | 1,070$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.74 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rockies | 45c | 933$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.85 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Rockies | 44c | 850$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.5 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockies | 46c | 832.45$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.2 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rockies | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Rockies | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Rockies | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Rockies | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Padres | 58c | 500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Rockies | 45c | 375$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Padres | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Padres | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Padres | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Padres | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…4471backed Padres | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Rockies | 44c | 85.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Padres | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Padres | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Padres | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Padres (-1.5)this page
- Rockies vs. PadresPadres won
- Rockies vs. Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.