Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ddedf16e1cb446df07558f54089818954ea444eeb090390a777a9decc5c2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 33c | 3,490$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.08 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 3,261$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.27 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 66c | 1,117$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.22 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 1,049$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.13 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 1,046$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.84 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 67c | 1,042$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 964.81$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 39c | 944$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.02 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 766.61$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.3 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 746$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 61c | 723$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.8 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 67c | 256$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 132.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 53c | 96.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 34c | 94.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 83.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 68c | 56.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 40.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 67c | 32.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 76c | 29.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 66c | 27.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 47c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.