TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FlyQuestof Sentinels, FlyQuest
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels54c28,000$15,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,259.8991854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FlyQuest44c22,737$9,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,761.21,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Sentinels44c13,220$5,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,866.2651044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FlyQuest47c11,111$5,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,89453750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed FlyQuest55c8,230$4,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.6816254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed FlyQuest49c7,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,559.991,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked FlyQuest55c6,558$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.4667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked FlyQuest52c6,000$3,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.9957246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Sentinels53c5,643$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.1446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed FlyQuest54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9963546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Sentinels47c4,600$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.5797427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Sentinels56c4,503$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.9875942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked FlyQuest54c4,242$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.891,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked FlyQuest55c4,149$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.7567553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed FlyQuest47c3,391$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.53551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Sentinels51c3,109$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.091,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed FlyQuest53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Sentinels47c2,843$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.57062.9%44 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Sentinels56c2,491$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.4675342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Sentinels48c2,478$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.2528827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Sentinels57c2,466$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.661,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed FlyQuest54c2,294$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.2854246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Sentinels52c2,250$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.5130357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FlyQuest59c2,217$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.83,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Sentinels50c2,217$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.7169539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Sentinels53c2,000$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.7432160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Sentinels45c1,962$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.0517250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked FlyQuest47c1,862$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.731,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f5…b1c6backed FlyQuest40c1,785$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.614774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.9wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Sentinels33c1,679$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.6846650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked FlyQuest43c1,631$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.2723751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Sentinels60c1,629$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.0286943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9003…fa6ebacked FlyQuest46c1,432$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.184100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+109.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed FlyQuest55c1,283$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.0741060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed FlyQuest54c1,282$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.6952848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed FlyQuest54c1,274$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.421749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Sentinels46c1,201$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.5650749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Sentinels53c1,177$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.3643442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fef…8c79backed FlyQuest70c1,175$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.7526246.9%123 W · 139 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels53c1,146$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked FlyQuest62c1,116$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.991,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Sentinels46c1,104$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Sentinels48c1,056$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1195951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FlyQuest50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc297…b1eabacked Sentinels50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Sentinels52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8151160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Sentinels45c999.98$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9979653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked FlyQuest49c955.52$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.051,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x446f…b09fbacked FlyQuest51c944.87$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.571861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FlyQuest51c937.42$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.561,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels46c921.05$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.131,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Sentinels47c916.22$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.151,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed FlyQuest50c790$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.71,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Sentinels19c760.2$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3894134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Sentinels52c750$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.9164247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed FlyQuest51c750$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.51,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e35…2614backed Sentinels63c746.93$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.296656.1%37 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Sentinels52c728.59$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.716942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels62c720$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9179…2f34backed Sentinels54c716.67$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38737161.7%229 W · 142 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed FlyQuest45c702.29$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.0652538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed FlyQuest52c699.93$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.971,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels55c664.33$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.841,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sentinels52c656.26$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.392,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Sentinels58c647.22$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5136749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b94…d382backed Sentinels50c616$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3084119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FlyQuest49c604.3$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.1948448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Sentinels50c601.98$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30233125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Sentinels59c601.29$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.474062.5%25 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed Sentinels58c600$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.165637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Sentinels49c585.49$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.3724326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Sentinels51c581$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Sentinels53c555$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1513454.5%73 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Sentinels49c544.58$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4611567.8%78 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d7…dacfbacked Sentinels56c532.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028965.1%188 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed FlyQuest57c527.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.371,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Sentinels48c518.9$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Sentinels50c514.56$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8424835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Sentinels59c504.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed FlyQuest52c500$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24150569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb927…4f7ebacked FlyQuest50c480$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da9…13ecbacked FlyQuest42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.192343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FlyQuest52c470$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.639447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FlyQuest52c440.23$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.311,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sentinels52c410$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.71,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe751…9af6backed Sentinels49c406.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025945.2%117 W · 142 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Sentinels60c402.37$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24111840.7%48 W · 70 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed FlyQuest51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.357151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Sentinels54c393.01$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6546263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Sentinels51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029240.8%119 W · 173 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Sentinels52c390.91$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3876639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed FlyQuest52c383.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2862739.9%250 W · 377 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Sentinels54c370$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.855347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Sentinels55c366.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Sentinels53c357.97$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2433042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Sentinels29c350.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.731,27057%724 W · 546 L+45.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FlyQuest60c312.69$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.851,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e5…070fbacked Sentinels53c311.57$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.131338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe37a…45dfbacked Sentinels52c306$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.148938.2%34 W · 55 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Sentinels53c303.31$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.814930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.