Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172970fd02ab94020f75fba02e381c6bbae35e48edefb5c31f6e6f7985ab2237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 77c | 821.16$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 294.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 250.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 218.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 30c | 211.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 190.52$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 26c | 177.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 173$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 151$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 140.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 138.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 135.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 134.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 126.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 91.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 63c | 91.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 89.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 28c | 87.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 85.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 72.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed Yes | 27c | 65.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 70c | 61.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 57.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 57.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 54.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 69c | 49.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 48.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 42.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 40.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 40.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 39.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 38.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 35c | 36.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 35.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 30.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 71c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 45c | 27.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 67c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 72c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 70c | 17.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.