Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x174050bd895dc1458046e970014824a425d60bd982241eb3c743e193ef03ec96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 636.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 454.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 308.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 200.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 29c | 188.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 186$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 173.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 173.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 159.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 143.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 128.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 119.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 92.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 75c | 80.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 79.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 79.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 34c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 66.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 64.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 26c | 60.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 55.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 50.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 25c | 50.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 48.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 47.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 78c | 39.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 31c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 72c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 33.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 32.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed No | 73c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 72c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 16.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 75c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.