Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969a024133fd794d6b0c609931767e1bce36303dcd73e50a84b466d8f4600a8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 549.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 542.65$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 66c | 227.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 220.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 203.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 202.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 192.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 186.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 186$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 178.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 168.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 149.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 121.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 20c | 113.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 101.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 12c | 82.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 75.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 44c | 67.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 56.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 48.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 48.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 39.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 37.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 45c | 34.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 48c | 33.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 45c | 29.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 45c | 28.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 63c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…c50abacked Yes | 64c | 25.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 25.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 46c | 25.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 46c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 61c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 60c | 17.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.