Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x175e8f23f062b5e42b998adde2adace2201f3108aa69a42e0a252ae397a810b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,823$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…b480backed Over | 39c | 999$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 28c | 967$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.48 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 862.76$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.41 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Under | 75c | 668.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 628.25$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 27c | 613.26$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 26c | 360.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 354.75$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 46c | 332.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 39c | 273.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 75c | 236$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 125.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 108.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 37c | 81.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 59c | 67.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 74c | 60.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 48c | 54.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…6b9fbacked Over | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 73c | 46.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 48c | 26.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 55c | 21.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Under | 67c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5this page
- VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.