Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176e252038663822f3fc6d4c70fb39b6f02467fb049c73fb478cb2a8276ee8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 667.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 635.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 621.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 25c | 590.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 27c | 382.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 31c | 346.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 340.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked No | 73c | 295.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 71c | 265.6$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 246.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 68c | 237.39$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked No | 77c | 221.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 199.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 156.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 23c | 151.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 123.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 121.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…d4c6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 28c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 74.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 21c | 70.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 72c | 61.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 25c | 60.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 26c | 60.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 60.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…7d5abacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 56.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 53.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 50.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 26c | 46.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 45.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 28c | 44.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 43.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 26c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 40.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 75c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 29.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 80c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…ae6abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 79c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.