Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f2d69aa56dbe8a91ce723dc533b6e369cfad82cb1e0ecc768bf630d74dcd03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 16c | 1,352$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.02 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 1,200$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.88 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 15c | 909.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.89 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 704.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.42 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 627.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.51 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 15c | 535.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.23 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 70c | 527.03$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 517.16$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.53 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 19c | 494.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.26 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 484.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 480.62$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 18c | 420.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 384.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.95 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 20c | 366.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.08 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 23c | 354.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.13 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 296.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 266.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 261.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.47 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 254.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.97 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 6c | 233.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 214.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 187 | 29.9%56 W · 131 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 17c | 199.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 23c | 147.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 14c | 147.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 72c | 145.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 145$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 16c | 134.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed No | 79c | 125.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 38c | 125.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 124.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 17c | 123.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 18c | 103.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 37c | 99.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 23c | 92.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 65c | 85.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 14c | 84.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 78.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 77.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 18c | 63.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 62.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 62.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 58.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 55.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 48.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 47.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 46.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 45.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 43.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 80c | 43.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 41.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…37d1backed Yes | 24c | 41.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 36.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 36.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 33.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…9d1abacked Yes | 79c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 27.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 75c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 21.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 77c | 14.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.