Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59641d7c96c3115160078a49a285b1bf6560ec3d48d731565361a7d18d4b737a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 43c | 605$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 498.23$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 467.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 341.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.35 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 58c | 338.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 297$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 284.08$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 279.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 11c | 257.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 45c | 246.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 220.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 10c | 201.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 47c | 201.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 13.2%14 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 189.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 54c | 161.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 158.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 52c | 148.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 9c | 139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed Yes | 15c | 134.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 132.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed No | 40c | 123.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 191 | 32.5%62 W · 129 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 14c | 116.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 110.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 31c | 101.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 44c | 98.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 52c | 96.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 16c | 95.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 57c | 94.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 84.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 16c | 82.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 80.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 22c | 79.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed Yes | 59c | 76.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 73.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 72.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 70.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 59c | 63.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 61.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 61.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 45c | 59.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 59.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 48c | 55.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…52c2backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 52c | 53.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 46.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 48c | 45.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 65c | 44.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 43.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 58c | 41.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 44c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 46c | 37.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 37.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 38c | 36.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 47c | 36.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 55c | 35.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 32.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…562dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 29.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 42c | 28.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 27.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…21e4backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 66c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 70c | 25.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…d303backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.