MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x177596d7350c0273a84ee12488d845e72d7fb0270df68d91ba3cdadceeba5123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 307.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 11c | 285.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 204$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Under | 70c | 31.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…125abacked Under | 71c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Under | 70c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Under | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…e22dbacked Under | 70c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…f9fbbacked Under | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…f567backed Under | 70c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b4…bb36backed Under | 70c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Under | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…5fe3backed Under | 70c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…cc0abacked Under | 70c | 25.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Under | 70c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…8914backed Under | 70c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Under | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e0cabacked Under | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Under | 70c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…f5d9backed Under | 70c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Under | 70c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…c3b5backed Under | 70c | 22.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Under | 70c | 22.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…c75ebacked Under | 70c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed Under | 70c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…0faebacked Under | 70c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…b866backed Under | 70c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…1f1dbacked Under | 70c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Under | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…bc66backed Under | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ebb7backed Under | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…962bbacked Under | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 66cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.