TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,768 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under58c7,083$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.8111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over42c6,905$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90012640.5%51 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over66c1,177$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.2547545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under34c646.06$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c603.7$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under33c548$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.166,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over26c318.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.612,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under66c307.57$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.574,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over30c169.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over38c151.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.455,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Over42c95.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b07…5f54backed Under46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.966546.2%30 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under33c66.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.673,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under60c36.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4844345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.16,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over67c20.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Over65c19.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.985757.9%33 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Under60c18.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4926063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.