MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa671d93e4b69bc3a684ed2e42c712af1a09c4f55d07c16440c8e43f392b17b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 11,715$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,748.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 8,254$5,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 3,073$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 2,407$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 1,007$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 904.87$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.56 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 656.15$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 611.94$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b82…2291backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 399$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 349.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 10c | 324.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 291$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 237.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 7c | 215.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 97.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 60.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 57.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 43.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.