MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9564ad0569a417fde2ebe41af504b171ab6b11382940370620de15cb2e88a14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 12,719$10,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 8,935$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 19c | 3,897$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 2,555$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 2,056$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 630.17$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 20c | 469.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 420$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 9c | 334.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 318$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 255.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 128.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 88.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 64.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 51.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 50.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 43.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 43.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.